Ending The Shutdown: Who Wins And What.

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Nov 10, 2025

There is a good reason I am not a politician, and that is because I hate the games politicians play. Many times, a decision has to be made in a “damn if you do, damn if you don’t” kind of situation, I would hate to find myself in. This, the longest government shutdown in the history of the United States, is a very good example.

On one hand, both Republicans and Democrats stand to lose and to gain by either ending or continuing the shutdown. Usually, the resolution comes down to who feels the most pressure and stands to lose the most political capital, and what that will look like in the next election. Every member of Congress, supposedly protecting the interests of their constituents while also trying to keep their jobs, must make a complicated calculation that also considers the broader picture of who is in power and what leverage they have.

Meanwhile, voters read headlines and listen to pundits who inform them of what’s good for them; thus, it’s almost impossible to reach common ground. Hence, again, the two different Americas we all live in.

However, in a rare moment, a majority opinion formed centered on the importance of preserving the ACA premium subsidies as people faced the prospect of possibly higher health insurance premiums. The Democrats seemed to have found an organizing principle coupled with the right messaging. However, it now appears that some have caved, and a procedural motion passed on Sunday to initiate negotiations on a Continuing Resolution (CR), which would end the shutdown. Many criticize Democrats for giving up their leverage. Others welcome the flow of SNAP benefits, restoring flights, and reopening agencies they rely on. Yet, others are conflicted and unsure what is going on and if ending the shutdown is good or bad. While on the Republican side, they seem to have a hard time accepting this as a victory because of the concessions they had to make to get there.

I don’t know which side you are on, or how you feel about it, but here’s what I’ve dug up, because I know you don’t have the time to do homework, and this isn’t the most enjoyable one either. However, we all need to be well-informed, as we will be voting again soon.

At the end, I’ll tell you what I would have done, even though it doesn’t really matter.

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The bill must pass both the Senate and the House and be signed into law by the president to actually end the shutdown. House Minority Leader Jeffries said that House Democrats would not support any measure that did not guarantee an extension of ACA subsidies, but House Republicans have enough votes to pass the bill without Democratic support.

What is actually in the proposed CR?

As it currently stands, the CR would fund some government agencies until January 30, 2026, allowing SNAP and WIC, as well as other benefits, to be funded so people can eat again. The CR would extend current funding levels (FY 2025 discretionary appropriations) for most federal agencies and programs at existing levels through the stopgap period.

The shutdown resulted in the furlough of roughly 900,000 federal employees and kept another two million working without pay. Some government programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid, continue to operate, as do certain agencies such as the Department of Defense and the Transportation Security Administration. Other agencies’ operations have been partially or fully suspended, including the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the WIC program. Air traffic controllers and other sensitive operations continue working without pay. Even the Army had to get a private donation to issue paychecks, which in itself is problematic for all sorts of reasons I’d rather discuss another time.

The agencies most affected by the furloughs are:

Members of Congress are guaranteed pay during government shutdowns due to a permanent appropriation passed in 1983, allowing their pay to not be renewed annually, compared to other departments. The average member is paid an annual salary of $174,000, with the Speaker of the House earning $223,500.

Eight Senate Democrats (Durbin, King, Hassan, Shaheen, Cortez Masto, Rosen, Fetterman, and Kaine) joined all Senate Republicans but Rand Paul to advance the bill.^[106]^[107] The deal was brokered by Shaheen, Hassan, and King.

However, full-year appropriations bills are included for military construction and veterans’ affairs, the legislative branch, and the Department of Agriculture. The full-year bills include $203.5 million to fund security for members of Congress and $852 million for US Capitol Police.

SNAP is also going to be funded through September 2026, which is the end of the fiscal year.

The deal guarantees a Senate vote to extend ACA subsidies in December, which to take place at the Democrats’ time of choosing. That’s a promise Sen. Thune (R), has made to the defecting Democrats. Senator King has said there is “no guarantee” that an extension of subsidies will pass by December 31, the date they expire. ACA enrollment will run until the 15th, granting additional time for a deal to be reached.

The CR does not contain a variety of spending cuts that the Trump administration advanced earlier in the year.

The bill guarantees that roughly 4,000 federal employees laid off during the shutdown be rehired and granted back pay. It bars the Office of Management and Budget from implementing mass layoffs of federal workers until January 2026

Funding for the Government Accountability Office will be maintained at its current level, rejecting a component of the earlier House stopgap bill.

In the currently proposed CR, DHS (and therefore ICE) would be funded at existing FY 2025 levels through the CR’s duration.

All in all:

Republicans made three main concessions in the negotiations:

Agreed to attach full-year appropriations for some departments.
Originally, the GOP wanted only a short-term “clean” CR. They later accepted full-year funding for the Department of Agriculture, Military Construction–Veterans Affairs, and the Legislative Branch to secure Democratic votes and reopen those critical sectors.
Accepted a guaranteed Senate vote on the ACA tax-credit extension.
Democrats demanded an extension of the Affordable Care Act premium subsidies within the CR. Republicans refused to include it in the bill but conceded to a binding commitment for a Senate vote by December on the subsidy extension. This allows Democrats to claim progress on health-care affordability without forcing the GOP to pass it immediately.
Dropped proposed policy riders and spending cuts.
Early GOP drafts included modest cuts and policy add-ons (e.g., border-security expansions, limitations on certain regulatory funding). Those were removed to keep the CR “clean” and increase the odds of passage.

Democrats made three key concessions to move the deal forward:

Dropped their demand to include the ACA tax-credit extension in the CR itself.
They originally refused to reopen the government without it. They later accepted a promise of a separate Senate vote by December, not an immediate policy win. This let the government reopen, but delayed the healthcare subsidy issue.

A Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) Health Tracking Poll (Nov 6, 2025) found 74% of U.S. adults say Congress should extend the enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits, including 94% of Democrats, 76% of independents, and 50% of Republicans.
Accepted flat (FY 2025-level) spending instead of inflation-adjusted increases.
Democrats wanted modest boosts for domestic programs (education, housing, climate, public health). The compromise keeps all discretionary funding frozen, effectively a real-term spending cut due to inflation.
Agreed to a short-term extension for most agencies.
Democrats had pushed for a full-year omnibus to prevent recurring brinkmanship. They conceded to a short-term CR through January 2026 for most departments, except those few with full-year funding.

The cost of the shutdown:

Polls: Multiple national surveys (Reuters/Ipsos, Pew, Morning Consult) show a majority of voters blame Republicans and Trump for the shutdown—about 55–60% blaming GOP, 25–30% blaming Democrats, remainder unsure.
Reason: Republicans control the Senate and the presidency, so the public sees them as responsible for governance. The White House messaging (”Democrats must give in”) also reinforced that perception.
Within the GOP: Moderate and swing-state senators faced growing backlash from furloughed federal workers and contractors. Party unity weakened over time.

Federal workers, contractors, and states with large federal employment (Virginia, Maryland, D.C., parts of Texas, and California) bore the heaviest burden. Some 1.3 million federal workers worked without pay at some point.
IRS operations halted. Passport and visa issuance backlog. Delayed FHA mortgage approvals. Research grants frozen. Private contractors and vendors—the janitors, cafeteria staff, maintenance crews, and IT subcontractors who serve federal buildings go unpaid and will never recover the lost income even after the shutdown.
Tourism around national parks and D.C. has dropped 20–30 %.
Small businesses dependent on SBA loans or federal permits were facing liquidity crunches.
Economic analysts estimated $10–15 billion/week GDP loss, halted contracts, delayed benefits, and reduced consumer spending. That’s a total of about $45–55 billion lost GDP total; roughly half recouped later, half permanently lost.
Allies publicly questioned U.S. reliability after troop-support delays and unpaid defense civilians abroad.
AP News reported that many Americans perceive the shutdown as a “major issue”: in a poll (October 16, 2025), 54% called it a major problem.
Public confidence in Congress hit a record low (~12 % approval, Gallup early Nov 2025).

It appears that, although Democrats suffered fewer immediate losses and less political reputational damage because of the shutdown, they conceded future leverage to end the crisis.

So, why would Democrats cave?

Some Democrats saw the situation as having moral and public leverage but lacking institutional control, and saw that their best option was a strategic trade-off.

The GOP has a trifecta. Some Democrats feel that they couldn’t pass or enforce their version of the bill without Republican cooperation. Even if polls favor their position, the public also overwhelmingly wants the government reopened. Democrats’ continual insistence on attaching the ACA subsidy extension risks flipping the narrative from “Republicans caused it” to “both sides are holding America hostage.” Every additional week of furloughs and economic disruption erodes sympathy for any side refusing to compromise.

Food aid (SNAP) was running out in several states, and Trump was seeking to stop payments through the courts, appealing the latest Federal Judge’s decision to fund the program. The Administration was causing even more chaos by demanding that states refund the money they had already disbursed in benefits.

Documented pressure has been coming mainly from Democratic governors and mayors in states hit hardest by federal furloughs and aid delays.

Governor Wes Moore (Maryland) – Maryland has tens of thousands of federal employees. Moore said the shutdown was “crushing families” and that Congress should “get the government open immediately and argue later.”
Governor Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania) – Called for “an end to political brinkmanship” and said citizens “don’t care who wins the argument—they just want their paychecks.”
Governor Gavin Newsom (California) – Warned that extended shutdowns threatened food aid and housing programs in his state, urging federal lawmakers to reopen first and negotiate policy separately.
Governor Maura Healey (Massachusetts) – Joined a coalition statement from Northeastern governors demanding “swift passage of a clean funding bill.”
Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser – Highlighted the shutdown’s local economic damage and loss of tourism revenue, pressing both parties to “get the government running and protect D.C. residents.”
New York City Mayor Eric Adams – Cited food and housing insecurity risks for low-income residents depending on federal programs and supported reopening before debating healthcare provisions.

Strategic Trade-off?

Democrats secured a guaranteed Senate vote on the ACA credits by December — a path to potentially win on substance without being blamed for the shutdown.
They calculated that reopening the government now would preserve public goodwill, while continuing the shutdown might make everyone lose.

Democrats who disagree with caving argue that their party surrendered leverage and reinforced a bad precedent. Progressive senators, such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and House members in the Progressive Caucus, said that agreeing to reopen without policy wins “rewards hostage-taking.” In their view, if Democrats reopen the government every time Republicans refuse to negotiate, GOP leadership learns that shutdowns work as leverage.

Critics argue Democrats should have used that popularity to hold out longer, force the Senate to vote under pressure, and win substantive policy rather than a symbolic promise. They contend that the GOP owns the shutdown politically and that ending it without concessions dilutes accountability. The economic pain, they argue, was already being blamed on Republicans. Left-leaning commentators (e.g., on MSNBC and The Nation) warn that Democrats risk normalizing governance by crisis: Republicans shut down the government, Democrats reopen it, nothing changes. They see this as eroding incentives for bipartisan budgeting and rewarding obstruction.

That’s all I have. I hope this helps you make sense of this mess.

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