Say Goodbye To The World We've Known
But there’s still hope.
I watch from afar and try not to freak out, but I'm definitely very concerned and disappointed, so I decided to put a few things together for those of you who might be feeling the same. Among the muck, there are glimmers of hope, even though it’s hard to see them among the barrage of scandalous behavior from the Administration.
Every year, I read the Eurasia Group’s The Top Risks report. The 2026 report just came out. This is a geopolitical report, if you haven’t heard of it. I strongly recommend you read it because it gives the big picture: America in the world and the world around it.
Most definitely, Americans will feel it financially, when traveling, and because of alarming changes in our political system. No ifs, no buts about it. And you won’t like it because, as much as Americans like to bitch about everything, we are likely about to see our world drastically change for our children and our communities, and wish we bitched louder and demanded more of our politicians while we could have.
How close does the Eurasia group get to reality with their predictions???
Pretty close usually.
Last year, they forecasted a deepening global leadership void, a worsening G-Zero world with power vacuums, emboldened rogue actors, rising miscalculations, and systemic instability. Well, we got it. Trump’s erratic politics, treatment of allies, and transactional, protectionist attitude reshaped international arrangements and disrupted established power lines, definitely destabilizing peaceful, cooperative leadership structures. We say international conflicts persist and deepen, and even the peace efforts Trump claimed were successful proved to be just another PR stunt. They are most definitely continuing on all fronts. Look them up if you don’t believe me.
The predicted “The Rule of Don” and the erosion of U.S. institutional norms under Trump, but mostly underestimated the scope and speed of these changes. Trump has been consolidating executive power, purging civil service, weakening checks and balances, weaponizing the government against his political opponents, past and present, and terrorizing the population far more than their expectations. Meanwhile, internationally, actions like withdrawal from international organizations and contentious foreign policy moves illustrated a personalized governance style that strained traditional consensus.
As predicted, in 2025, US–China tensions escalated, especially over trade and strategic technology. There were tariff battles and critical supply chain issues in sectors like rare earths. But even though decoupling pressures and economic competition increased, the overt breakdown was mitigated by negotiated adjustments late in the year, especially after the Trump - Xi meeting, when Trump found out that China has leverage on the U.S.
Russia remained a principal source of geopolitical instability with continuing conflict dynamics, threatening European security and more. They’ve been resistant to peace deals and slowing down negotiations, saying one thing and doing another, and overall not allowing Trump the victory of settling the conflict in 24 hours.
They accurately predicted the trend of AI governance risk continuing, even if headline crises did not ignite in 2025. However, climate and environmental risks did not feature as a top geopolitical risk in their forecast, yet record-breaking weather and climate impacts were major 2025 stories (e.g., extreme events recognized by global leaders).
So, basically, the Eurasia Group knows what they are talking about and has a pretty good track record of figuring things out ahead of time.
